Bracketology: Weekend risers and decliners, plus Monday’s games that matter

Every weekday from now until Selection Sunday (and every day in March) will feature analysis of the previous night plus a quick look at games with the potential to impact the final NCAA tournament field of 68.

Davidson: The Wildcats (17-6, 8-4 Atlantic 10) quietly added a victory of modest value, upending La Salle 77-69 on the road. In a week that so many borderline tournament teams slid backwards, Davidson improved its position simply by winning games against George Mason and La Salle.

Michigan State: The Spartans (17-8, 8-4 Big Ten) had to love Denzel Valentine’s game-winner against Ohio State. Michigan State is only 3-6 against the top 50 even with the victory over the Buckeyes, but it still has a profile that wouldn’t have it on the edge of the field if the season ended today.

N.C. State: And there’s the signature road victory the Wolfpack (15-11, 6-7 ACC) needed. N.C. State handled Louisville 74-65, and its path back to a fourth consecutive NCAA tournament became far less narrow as a result. The Wolfpack still needs to win more games, and another high-level victory would be nice. But it closed one of the big holes left on its profile.

Pittsburgh: The Panthers (17-9, 6-6 ACC) still have a bunch of work to do away from the Pete, but their throttling of North Carolina brings them back into the postseason conversation.

St. John’s: Proof that a three-game winning streak can do wonders for a borderline tournament team, the Red Storm (17-8, 6-6) won at Xavier on Saturday. It’s far from a sure thing, but St. John’s looks much better compared to the edge of the field than a week ago.

UCLA: The Bruins (16-10, 8-5 Pac-12) snagged a season split with Oregon and a weekend sweep of the Pac-12’s Oregon schools. Steve Alford’s bunch still has work to do, but that was an impressive week against two schools knocking on the door of postseason contention.

Boise State: The Broncos (18-7, 8-4 Mountain West) lost at Fresno State, which sits outside the top 200 of the RPI. Not a good idea, especially for a team with limited opportunities to improve its profile the rest of the way.

Cincinnati: Losing at home to Tulane isn’t as horrific as some folks might suggest, but it certainly isn’t the way the Bearcats (17-8, 8-5 American) are going to improve their seeding. Nonetheless, it would still take a fairly notable collapse for Cincinnati to fall out of the field.

George Washington: The Colonials (17-8, 7-5 Atlantic 10) have dropped four of five, including Saturday’s home loss against Virginia Commonwealth. George Washington could theoretically re-emerge as an at-large possibility, but it doesn’t have many chances at high-value victories the rest of the way. Its margin of error is gone.

Georgia: The Bulldogs (16-8, 7-5 SEC) lost at home to Auburn, which is not the sort of thing a team destined for the NCAA tournament typically does. But here’s some credit for Bruce Pearl and the Tigers, who also beat Louisiana State in Baton Rouge earlier this season.

Iowa: Somebody decent was eventually going to lose to Northwestern, which had dropped a bunch of close games while going 0-12 against the top 100. That somebody decent is Iowa (15-10, 6-6 Big Ten), which capped a brutal week that began with a home loss to Minnesota with an overtime setback in Evanston.

Old Dominion: There’s nothing inherently wrong with losing at Texas-El Paso, but the Monarchs (18-6, 7-5 Conference USA) are effectively done as an at-large candidate after dropping two games in three days during a Texas road trip.

Miami at Boston College (3, ESPNU): The game was postponed a day, but the stakes remain the same for Miami, which simply cannot afford a loss against the ACC’s last-place team, even on the road.

Clemson at Georgia Tech (7, ESPNU): If the Tigers (15-10, 7-6 ACC) are going to make a surprising resurgence into the NCAA conversation, they pretty much have to beat the reeling Yellow Jackets (11-14, 2-11). The good news? Clemson has won 10 in a row against Georgia Tech, one shy of its most ever against an ACC team.

Pittsburgh at Virginia (7, ESPN): The Panthers (17-9, 6-6 ACC) direly need a quality road victory. This trip to Virginia (23-1, 11-1) provides a chance to get about as good a win as anyone has (besides Duke, which also won in Charlottesville last month).

Seton Hall at Villanova (7, Fox Sports 1): Hard as it is to believe now, Seton Hall actually won the first meeting between the teams back on Jan. 3. The Wildcats (23-2, 10-2 Big East) are 10-1 since then, while the Pirates (15-10, 5-8) have dropped eight of 11 in the interim. Seton Hall’s at-large hopes continue to wither, though a triumph in Philadelphia would certainly help.

Kansas at West Virginia (9, ESPN): The Mountaineers (19-6, 7-5 Big 12) are in no imminent danger of teetering on the edge of the field of 68. Still, they’ve lost three of four and haven’t beaten a likely NCAA tournament team since Jan. 13. Bob Huggins’ bunch could use a good result.

Contact Patrick Stevens anytime: Email | Twitter

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