Down the coast in Wilmington, Phil Prete, the city’s senior environmental planner, said that although it has no beachfront, planners are trying to understand how sea level rise will affect flood-prone areas and tidal creeks. Wilmington recently partnered with the EPA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to study the vulnerability of its water and wastewater infrastructure, using the calculations from the original science panel report.
“It gave us a really good assessment and some strategies to look at,” he said. “It also provided us with a template to apply to other aspects.” He added the most recent report hasn’t had a major effect on the city’s plans and said that the 30-year time frame might make sense when thinking about a mortgage but that cities need to plan far beyond that.
“There are plenty of decisions being made today on things with a life span of 50 to 100 years,” he said. “To just pull the blinds at 30 years limits the ability to plan beyond that.”
There’s also a practical side to planning for climate change: It’s where the money is.
This year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) added requirements for climate change planning to its hazard mitigation grant program, which provides several million dollars annually for state and local projects in North Carolina. To qualify for the program and the grants available through it, plans now must contain projections of the effects of sea level rise in areas that might be at risk.
Under McCrory’s immediate predecessor, Democrat Bev Perdue, the state’s 2010 hazard mitigation plan included a small section on climate change and promised a full review in the next version. That version, released in 2013, after McCrory took office, contained no references to climate change. Under the new rules, in the next update, due in 2018, the state won’t have a choice.
The new federal requirements tie in to FEMA’s resilient communities program, which grew out of the response to Hurricane Sandy and encourages communities to rebuild differently and in less flood-prone areas.
The changes also come as federal funding for beach renourishment and inlet dredging has dropped, shifting more of the cost to state and local governments. Such projects are essential to coastal tourism and the recreational fishing industry, but as federal aid falls, the expenditures are receiving more scrutiny from area taxpayers.
And then there’s NC 12.
The iconic, two-lane ribbon that stretches down the Outer Banks is probably the most visible intersection of sea level rise and public policy. Keeping the road open and maintained has been a costly struggle since it was first paved in the 1950s. As the recent washout in Kitty Hawk illustrates, it doesn’t take a hurricane to cause significant damage.
When a hurricane or significant storm hits, the damage can be extensive and expensive. In 2011, after Hurricane Irene blew out an inlet that had been closed since 1945, the state Department of Transportation spent more than $10 million reopening the road with a temporary bridge. Officials estimate that a new bridge would cost more than $200 million. They have also identified at least four other spots along the road that need work.
With sea level rise likely to exacerbate an already tenuous situation, each new washout raises the question of when the highway will become a lost cause.
Rogers, the coastal engineer, said the impact of rising seas will be felt along the coast primarily through more frequent flooding. He added that the controversy over the sea level reports has given a false impression that nothing is being done. Although coastal towns are often not directly motivated by worries about climate change, he said that many have tightened building rules and height requirements in recent years.
“To put it in perspective, some of the things we’ve already done might have dealt with some of [the effects of climate change],” he said. By the next sea level rise report in five years, he said, there might be an even clearer picture of what to expect.
To live on the coast, he said, you have to adapt to survive.
“People have gotten creative along the way,” he said. “That’s probably not going away.”
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